U 2021. godini epidemija COVID-19 nastavila se širiti svijetom, dok su Sjedinjene Države nastavile provoditi politike monetarnog ublažavanja. Nakon što je Biden preuzeo dužnost, predložio je planove potrošnje koji uključuju 1,9 bilijuna ekonomske pomoći i 1,2 bilijuna zakona o izgradnji infrastrukture. Prekomjerno izdavanje novca bilo je neizbježno, što je dovelo do porasta cijena roba uključujući i osnovne metale. Među njima su u prvom planu rasle cijene kositra.
U 2021. godini cijena kositra na međunarodnom tržištu pokazala je trend jednostranog rasta, a godišnja službena kotacija kositra na LME-u porasla je za 86 posto. Najniža cijena bila je 20.710/t, a najviša 39.875/t. Prosječna cijena iznosila je 31.141 po toni, s godišnjim-na-godišnjim povećanjem od 82 posto. Zalihe LME porasle su 8,6 posto s 1,860 tone na 2.020 tona.
U 2021., trend cijena kositra na LME-u može se grubo podijeliti u dva kruga rasta, od početka godine do kraja rujna cijena je porasla sa 20.970 USD/tona na 35.800 USD/tona relativno najviše u godini, u početkom listopada blaga korekcija na 33400 USD/tona, nakon čega je drugi val ponovnog rasta krajem studenoga dosegao 39875 USD/tona. Od tada šok traje do kraja godine.
Slično trendu cijena kositra na LME-u, u 2021., spot cijena kositra u Šangaju također je rezultat vala rastućeg tržišta. Spot indeks kalaja na šangajskom tržištu porastao je za 95 posto tijekom godine. Najniža je 152.838 juana/tona, najviša 300.063 juana/tona, prosjek je 227.049 juana/tona, što je godišnje-u-godišnje povećanje od 87 posto. Zalihe su u prethodnom razdoblju naglo pale s 5.574 tone na 1.260 tona, što je pad od 77 posto.
Customs statistics show that from January to November 2021, China's tin concentrate import volume totaled 164,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 25 percent ; Refined tin imports of 4,588 tons, down 71.8 percent year on year; Refined tin exports totaled 14,000 tons, up 239 percent year on year; Net exports of refined tin totaled more than 9,000 tons. China's refined tin production totaled 214,200 tons in 2021, up 11.07 percent year on year, according to the China Non-ferrous Metals Industry Association.
Prema podacima koje je objavio Svjetski ured za statistiku metala (WBMS), 2021. globalna prijavljena proizvodnja rafiniranog kositra iznosila je 380 100 mt, a potražnja 378 800 mt, što je blagi višak.
The World Bank's latest Global Economic Outlook, released in January, noted that, following a strong rebound in 2021, global economic growth is entering a period of marked slowdown due to new threats posed by novel Coronavirus variants, combined with rising inflation, debt and income inequality. Global growth is expected to slow markedly from 5.5 per cent in 2021 to 4.1 per cent in 2022, with some negative impact on base metals markets, as the release of pent-up demand in the previous phase is completed and fiscal and monetary support policies are withdrawn. As for the tin market, from the supply side, Indonesian President Joko Widodo, as the world's largest refined tin exporter, has talked about tin export twice recently. In November, he told an annual meeting of the central bank that Indonesia could halt tin exports by 2024 to attract investment in the resource processing industry. In January, he said at the 2022 G20 Business Meeting in Indonesia that he would ensure that Indonesia could meet the world's demand for tin, nickel and bauxite, not in the form of raw materials, but in the form of finished or semi-finished products with high added value. I think that the outside world may question the strength of Indonesia's policy implementation because of past experience, but at present, this is very likely to happen. On the one hand, Indonesia's aggressive development of nickel downstream production since 2015 has seen results, not only creating a lot of jobs, but also having a positive impact on its exports and trade balance. The Indonesian government is expected to apply the success of nickel to other mining products. On the other hand, when Joko's second term as president expires in 2024, he is expected to follow the development model of the nickel industry and roll out industrial policies on all mining products, including tin, in which Indonesia is dominant, before the end of his term, thus becoming a highlight of his achievements. Based on the above two factors, if conditions are mature, the Indonesian government can fully advance the implementation date of the suspension of tin export, so there will be great uncertainty in the global tin supply in the next 2-3 years. From the consumption side, according to the international Tin Industry Association estimates, in 2022, the photovoltaic industry is expected to reach 16,000 to 19,000 tons of tin, and last year, the photovoltaic industry with about 14,000 tons of tin, considerable growth. Thus, this year tin market overall consumption will continue to maintain growth.
Što se tiče cijene, očekuje se da će lunxi ove godine raditi u rasponu od 40,000 48,000 USD/tona, a Huxi će se prilagoditi i šokirati u regiji od 300.000 350.000 RMB/toni.
