Spot aspect: yesterday, Shanghai electrolytic copper spot to that month contract reported at 210 300 yuan/ton, the average price of 255 yuan/ton, 60 yuan/ton higher than the previous day. Flat copper transaction price 73,200-73,460 yuan/ton, upwater copper transaction price 73,230-73,520 yuan/ton. Early Shanghai copper jump low open center of gravity continued to fall back to the bottom of 73000 yuan/ton integer mark, the center of gravity continued to warm up to a small daily average around 73200 yuan/ton narrow shock finishing.
View:
On the macro side, according to gold News, the Turkish Foreign Ministry issued a statement on 28th local time, saying that the Russian and Ukrainian delegations will hold closed-door negotiations at 10:30 am local time on 29th in the Istanbul office area of the Turkish presidential palace. An adviser to Ukraine's Interior Ministry previously said no major breakthrough was expected. In addition, crude oil prices plunged more than 9 percent yesterday.
Fundamentals, supply side, copper concentrate TC rising trend continues, weak spot demand will continue to push TC up. CSPT quarterly guidance prices will be released next week, the market is holding a wait{{0}}and-see attitude. Import, import window continued to close, weekly import deficit. In terms of scrap copper, the price difference between fine and waste is still above reasonable price, but affected by the epidemic and fear of falling sentiment, traders have significantly accelerated the frequency of shipment. Demand side, last week fine copper rod operating rate of 62.81 percent , down 0.55 percent . The suppression of consumption by the epidemic continues, and utilization rates are expected to continue to be affected. At present, the improvement of the epidemic situation has become a key factor in the short-term trend of copper prices, but in the context of stable domestic growth, it is suggested to treat with more cautious thinking.
On the inventory front, LME stocks were at 80,600 mt, down 0.01 mt from the previous session, while SHFE dropped 0.26 mt to 44,200 mt.
In international copper, the ratio of international copper to London copper was 6.67, up 0.87 percent from the previous trading day.
On the whole, the russia-Ukraine situation is still under negotiation. The domestic epidemic impacts both sides of supply and demand, and multiple factors add uncertainty to the current copper price. This prequel LME recommended banning Russian copper from warehouses, short-term copper price volatility may increase. However, in the context of stable domestic growth, if the epidemic is effectively controlled, the recovery of consumption will play a driving role in the rise of copper prices. It is suggested to take a cautious approach.
